Trends Update, Week 43 - 2026

This week we rebuilt the entire GINC trend list from 300 fresh trend candidates to a final 250, checking against 27 published trend and risk reports (below), and recalculated the Attention Index principally based on data from Wikipedia, Google and GINC for every trend. We built a new Expectations Index based on prediction market data from Polymarket, Kalshi and Manifold to provide some insight into market expectations on many of the 250 trends. Finally, we translated the entire trends site into 14 languages, and published it all at trends.ginc.org.

Revised trend set. This week we completed a full review of the trend list. Four independent AI panels proposed 300 candidate trends (Anthropic - Fable 5.1, DeepSeek V4.1, OpenAI - GPT-6 Astra, Mistral - Large 4) balanced across the nine GINC National Capability Framework domains tested against 27 trend and risk reports published in 2025 and 2026 (full list below). Human expert review cut these to 275 in a single trend-by-trend rating review process, and a final pass arrived at 250. The aim was to remove overlap, sharpen definitions and keep only trends with a sustained, measurable signal.

Sources. The GINC Trend Attention Index draws on Wikipedia page views in 28 languages and Google search interest worldwide and in 48 countries, with Google search volumes behind Share of Attention. GINC website traffic data provides additional insight direct-to-trend with location data to map to source country interest and overlay with secondary sources. The new GINC Trend Expectations Index, draws on data from three prediction markets: Polymarket, Kalshi and Manifold. We mapped 2,284 market questions across these three platforms to 193 of the 250 trends, and 100 trends have enough live questions for real-time insight into market expectations implied from probabilities and depth from the amount of money behind each question.

We're in the process of bringing on domestic Chinese and Russian sources to inform trends data with more diversity.

Week-on-week change.
- 199 of 250 trends carry over from the previous list (80 per cent of the set): 49 under the same name, 150 renamed.
- 51 trends are added: 27 entirely new, including AI agents, Nuclear arms race, Housing affordability and Weight-loss drugs, and 24 formed by splitting or merging earlier trends.
- 32 earlier trends are dropped, including Enhanced geothermal, Soft power & cultural influence, Food loss & waste and Drones & advanced air mobility. We continue to monitor the closest of them.
- Many renamed, for example General-purpose AI capability → Frontier AI capability, Advanced nuclear fission → Small modular reactors, and Compute scaling & AI infrastructure → AI data centre build-out.
- Ranked by change in attention over the past year, 14 per cent of continuing trends sit within five places of their previous rank, and the median move is 25 places. This is larger than a usual week because we also revised the source weighting behind most trends, in part trying to removing terms driven by single news events. The largest movers are Early warning systems (244th to 53rd) and Women's workforce participation (197th to 41st) up, and Electric vehicle adoption (41st to 228th) and AI job displacement (19th to 136th) down.
- Rising most over the year: Automated AI research (+132 per cent), Ransomware & cyber extortion (+102 per cent) and Chipmaking tool chokepoints (+73 per cent).

Week Definitions. Each week runs from 00:00 GMT Sunday to 23:59 GMT Saturday. We publish on the Saturday, so the latest week is read as far as the data then reaches when our computations run. All weekly analysis is now dates for the 'Week Ending' to help users see how fresh the data is. We've also added a note at the top of the home page on the age of the last update.

In Summary. Every trend has a full three-year history, recalculated with this week's method, so each trend can be compared with its own past. Figures published before this week used the earlier list and search terms, so compare them with this week's only for continuing trends, and with care. Renamed trends keep their pages and addresses.

Risk and Trend Reports consulted

- World Economic Forum, with Marsh McLennan and Zurich Insurance Group. Global Risks Report 2026. 2026.

- Eurasia Group. Top Risks 2026. 2026.

- UK Ministry of Defence, Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre. Global Strategic Trends: Out to 2055 (GST 7). 2024.

- US National Intelligence Council. Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World. 2021.

- McKinsey & Company. McKinsey Technology Trends Outlook 2026. 2026.

- EY. Futures Reimagined: EY Megatrends 2026 and Beyond. 2026.

- BlackRock Investment Institute. Mega Forces. 2026.

- European Commission. 2025 Strategic Foresight Report: Resilience 2.0 – Empowering the EU to Thrive amid Turbulence and Uncertainty. 2025.

- International Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook, October 2026: Resilience under Strain, Urgent Choices. 2026.

- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. SIPRI Yearbook 2026: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security. 2026.

- Munich Security Conference. Munich Security Report 2026: Under Destruction, including the Munich Security Index 2026 (with Kekst CNC). 2026.

- Gartner. Top Strategic Technology Trends for 2026. 2025.

- MIT Technology Review. 10 Breakthrough Technologies 2026. 2026.

- World Economic Forum with Frontiers. Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2026. 2026.

- United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026. 2026.

- UN Economist Network. Shaping the Trends of Our Time. 2020.

- Control Risks. RiskMap 2026: Top Risks. 2025.

- Control Risks. RiskMap 2027 (preview themes). 2026.

- The Economist. The World Ahead 2026. 2025.

- Deloitte. Tech Trends 2026. 2026.

- Capgemini. TechnoVision: Top Tech Trends of 2026. 2026.

- Morgan Stanley Research. Key Investment Themes for 2026 and 10 Thematic Predictions. 2026.

- Accenture Strategy. Macro Foresight Brief: 2026 Outlook and Top 10 Macro Trends for Companies. 2025.

- Ipsos. Ipsos Global Trends, 9th edition (*The Uneasy Decade*, 2025) and 10th edition (*In Search of Silver Linings*, 2026).

- Temasek. Temasek Review 2026. 2026.

- OECD. OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2025. 2025.

- OECD. OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2026 Issue 1. 2026.